| |  | | March 23, 2026 | | | | | | | | AI Is Blurring What's Real. How Do You Know What to Trust? | | | By Keith Wagstaff
Artificial intelligence is taking financial fraud to a whole new level, making chatbot scams, video deepfakes, and voice cloning standard fare for online criminals trying to steal our money. So how do we know what to believe in today's digital world? We've broken down the signs of AI fakery. | | | | | | | | | | 32% | That's the probability of an economic recession in the U.S., according to economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal last week. In January, the last time the Journal conducted the survey, it was 27%.
In other words, even though the price of crude oil and gas has spiked since the Iran war began, economists still doubt the U.S. is at much risk of a recession.
In fact, they were also asked how high crude oil would need to go – and for how long it would need to stay there – to tip the odds of a recession over 50%, and the figures were fairly reassuring.
The economists surveyed gave responses averaging $138 a barrel and 14 weeks. For reference, U.S. oil futures that were in the mid-$60 range before the war started at the end of February have most recently been in the mid-$90 range. | | | | | | | The Story Behind Warby Parker | | How did Warby Parker co-CEO Dave Gilboa get the idea for his multi-billion dollar company? Losing his glasses while travelling in Vietnam.
Gilboa shared his playbook (and talked AI-powered glasses) with SoFi's Liz Thomas. | | | | | | | WEEK AHEAD ON WALL STREET | | | | The Mortgage Rate About-Face | | | By Mario Ismailanji
With the earnings and economic data fronts relatively quiet this week, we are highlighting an area feeling the direct, compounding impact of the Middle East conflict: The housing market.
Just as the critical spring buying season begins, mortgage rates are on the rise again, diffusing some of last month's buyer optimism.
- The news: The spring buying season kicks into gear just as mortgage rates are going back up.
- The context: Treasury yields are higher since the war in Iran started, fueled by expectations that higher oil prices will reignite inflation. Mortgage rates tend to move with Treasury yields.
- Your move: Keep a close eye on homebuilder stocks, already down ~20% over the last month or so, and related retail sectors. The latest housing data looked somewhat disappointing, and higher borrowing costs could test the resilience of the broader real estate sector.
| | | | | | | | | | | | Informed investment decisions start with informed investors. Here's what's making headlines:
💉 Novo Nordisk (NVO) won FDA approval for a higher-dose version of Wegovy shots meant to win back share of the weight-loss market. The higher dose, coming out in April, aims to better compete with Eli Lilly's (LLY) Zepbound.
📺 California, New York and six other states filed an antitrust suit challenging television station owner Nexstar's (NXST) proposed $6.2 billion takeover of rival company Tegna (TGNA). If the megadeal goes through, the combined entity would reach nearly 60% of U.S. households. | | | | | | |  | | Gas could hit $4 a gallon this week. (Yahoo Finance) | | | | | | | | |  | | There's a new market for the shadowy world of merchant cash advances: small businesses that desperately need cash to pay tariffs. (NPR's Planet Money) | | | | | | | | |  | | In high school, economics is out, personal finance is in. (The Wall Street Journal) | | | | | | | | | | | Intel, insights, and inspo for your money. | | On the Money cuts through the noise of day‑to‑day financial news to bring you a more thoughtful point of view on what's important in this moment — and how it impacts your bottom line. We value your trust above all. | | | | | | | | | | Did you find today's newsletter valuable? | | | | |
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