⚔️ Double-edged rate sword

…rising interest rates are a frenemy of consumers and banks

Good interest, bad debt (jayk7/Getty Images)

Yesterday's Market Moves   Dow Jones 33,809 (-0.23%) S&P 500 4,134 (-0.10%) Nasdaq 12,072 (-0.42%) Bitcoin $27,281 (-10.57%) Dow Jones 33,809 (-0.23%) S&P 500 4,134 (-0.10%) Nasdaq 12,072 (-0.42%) Bitcoin $27,281 (-10.57%)

Hey Snackers, You may notice we got a little makeover, and that's because we've got some exciting news: Snacks is now part of Sherwood Media, Robinhood's recently launched independent news and info arm. We'll keep delivering the business stories you know and love, and will have even more to share in the coming months. Stocks ticked down for the week despite stronger-than-feared bank earnings. The Fed said that inflation and hiring cooled over the past few weeks, boosting hopes of a rate-hike breather after May's meeting. A slew of earnings are coming up this week, including from Big Tech.

CA$H

The double-edged sword of rising rates has consumers chasing interest and collecting IOUs Not just platinum problems… Last week American Express said it had set aside $1.1B — way more than expected — to cover potential loan losses. Amex isn't the only lender worried about delinquencies. US consumer debt hit a record $4.82T in February, and Americans are starting to fall behind on credit-card and loan payments. Driving the IOU pileup: pandemic savings have dried up, wages are lagging behind inflation, and rising interest rates have become a national frenemy. Enemy/friend: Folks hate high rates on their debt (picture: car payments at 15-year highs), but they dig higher returns on their savings. APYes: Last month the average annual percentage yield (aka: return) for online savings accounts reached 3.75%, up from just 0.5% a year earlier. Interest chasing: 30% of US customers moved $$ between banks last month, and a third of those said they were searching for a higher APY — which also just hit a 15-year high. Smilin' while they're cryin'... The double-edged sword of higher rates is jabbing banks too. Last quarter, the four largest US lenders wrote off $3.4B in loans (up 73% on the year) as consumers struggled to pay down debts. Citi, JPMorgan Chase, and Wells Fargo recently set aside a combined $2B to cover potential loan losses. But there's a corporate plus side to climbing rates: this month, those same banks reported expectation-busting earnings as rising rates on customer loans (like mortgages) padded their coffers. They expect profits to increase if hikes continue. THE TAKEAWAY Cash is cool again… Now that investors can earn higher interest on their cash, some are parking more $$ in interest-bearing accounts like money-market funds and savings. That can be bad news for stocks, since investors demand higher returns from equities to justify the changed opportunity costs. Meanwhile, banks are competing to offer higher APYs than rivals as the Fed continues raising rates. At least one more hike's expected in May.

Events

Coming up this week Big tech on deck… Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta are set to report, but slow growth (and high costs) could zap results. Last quarter, Microsoft missed sales expectations as PC and cloud demand cooled. Google disappointed as YouTube ads sagged. And despite Meta's cost slashing, analysts expect it to report its sixth straight quarter of declining profit. Tech stocks have jumped this year on hopes that the Fed would start cutting rates, but it may not be enough for a profit rebound. Next stop… cleanup. Norfolk Southern will report for the first time since one of its trains derailed in Ohio in February. The rail giant faces suits from the DOJ and Ohio, among others, after the disaster spilled toxic chemicals. Norfolk says it's paid out $28M for cleanup so far, but the full price tag could be much higher. Since 2012, Norfolk's workforce has shrunk 39% and its accident rate has spiked 80%. Experts think understaffing could be an industry-wide challenge. Last week, rival Union Pacific delivered muted #s.

Zoom out

Stories we're watching Fake Drake, real problems… Last week, an AI-generated song featuring the voices of Drake and The Weeknd racked up millions of streams across TikTok, YouTube, Spotify, and other platforms. Universal Music Group, the world's largest label, which reps the artists, had the song taken down on infringement grounds. Then another Drake fake was uploaded. Labels like UMG, Warner, and Sony Music have aggressively protected their music (think: YouTube vids removed), but AI tracks could be a game of Whac-a-Mole until rules are established. Selling the forest for the trees… just in time for Arbor Day. American logging titan Weyerhaeuser has found a profitable new venture in carbon offsets: credits that can be bought by companies to counteract their industrial emissions. A Wall Street Journal report found that the tree-chopping lumber producer is selling the CO2-sponging abilities of its 10.6M acres of forest to companies looking to cut emissions. But critics say the environmental-benefit math is fuzzy. The logger expects to generate $100M/year selling offsets by 2025.

ICYMI

Last week's highlights Beef: Netflix added 1.7M subs last quarter, fewer than half what Wall Street was expecting. But the streamer hopes its password-mooching crackdown will fuel growth once the "cancellation reaction" wears off. Cut: The Writers Guild of America approved a strike if an agreement isn't reached with studios by May. Streaming has led to a drop in writer payouts, but old rules may be catching up to disruptors. Angst: Gen Z and millennials are racking up record debt as financial avoidance leads to retail therapy and the bar for "doing OK" rises. US workers are now demanding a minimum of $76K to start a new job.

What else we're Snackin' Lift: The repo man's back. Repossessors are prepping for a summer of tows as delinquencies hit a record. It's a switch-up from the pandemic, when relief measures kept drivers from getting the boot. Dry: Global water scarcity has led to a surge in theft from agua-rich areas like national parks, rivers, and even fire hydrants. Water scarcity could reduce some countries' GDP by up to 6% by 2050. Likes: As social-media biggies like Instagram and TikTok get flooded with branded influencer content, users are turning to #ad-free networks. Picture: an app that lets you post only 100 times for life. 🍪 Thanks for Snacking with us! Want to share the Snacks? Invite your friends to sign up here.

Snack Fact Of the Day In 1991, Mall of America gave Sears a 100-year lease on a three-story spot for $10/year Read more

Monday Monday: Earnings expected from Coke and Credit Suisse Tuesday: Earnings expected from Microsoft, Google, Visa, UPS, Verizon, GM, McDonald's, GE, Spotify, Pepsi, 3M, Raytheon, JetBlue, and Chubb Wednesday: Earnings expected from Meta, Boeing, Hilton, Norfolk Southern, Roku, Wyndham, and Spirit Airlines Thursday: Earnings expected from Amazon, Mastercard, American Airlines, Pinterest, Eli Lilly, Merck, Domino's, Southwest Airlines, Hertz, Hasbro, Northrop-Grumman, AstraZeneca, Comcast, Keurig Dr Pepper, Capital One, Crocs, T-Mobile, Activision Blizzard, Caterpillar, and Snap Friday: Earnings expected from Exxon, Chevron, Colgate-Palmolive, and Sony Authors of this Snacks own shares of: Amazon, Exxon, Comcast, GM, Google, Microsoft, Warner Music, Snap, and Roku

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